OK I sent a support ticket to PayPal and got this rather depressing news back: "Thank you for contacting PayPal Merchant Technical Support. I am sorry to hear of the difficulty you have had. The IPN URL is hard coded to the recurring payments profile when the customer creates it from your subscription button. Unfortunately it is not possible to change these to a different URL from the PayPal side. There are two options to resolve the issue. The first is to create new subscription buttons for your website. In the advanced variables section on step 3, enter the following: modify=2. This will then allow new subscribers to continue to sign up but your existing subscribers can use this to modify their current subscription to your "new terms" which would change the IPN URL the transaction was posted to. The second option would be to cancel the customer's profile and have them sign up again. " So do you love that, cancel the customer's profile and have them sign up again! Absolutely stunning suggestion from PayPal!
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