I'm not a developer, so I can't help you. But I can tell you the messages are sent by a very popular membership plugin - memberpress . We haven't had an issue with it since June, so I'm not sure if it's something Paypal fixed or not.
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I have a ticket open with PayPal for over a month now, I keep bumping it and they keep telling me they are looking into it. I'll update here if I hear anything back.
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I've got exactly the same problem. After extensive research, we have concluded that Paypal is occasionally truncating the IPN, and it is causing issues with payments for subscriptions on our site ( its not sending the complete gateway ID ) . Our issue started the same month as yours, May 2022. We have had a ticket open for a couple of weeks but no resolution yet.
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