So it has been a week, and even after opening a support request on this issue it remains unresolved and I haven't gotten a response from them since last Wednesday. Recurring billing is a pretty important feature, but if payments notifications aren't sent then the feature is pretty much crippled without manual lookups or an extra server-based routine verifying ALL subscriptions. This shouldn't be necessary. This doesn't inspire confidence, and since our project had to move forward we've nearly re-written the subscription system to use Stripe for merchant processing, which is actually proven pretty easy to integrate with. Aside from the recurring billing issue, I found out that Stripe also allows you to change plans and amounts in active subscriptions so that you don't have to recreate agreements and prompt users to pay again. And since PayPal hasn't wanted to address requests to allow changes to existing agreements at https://github.com/paypal/PayPal-REST-API-issues/issues/25 then Stripe seems to be the flexible way to go.
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