Seller refusing to refund, offering to resend item

[SJG123]

I paid for an item (including express shipping) intended as a gift, 2 months ago.

The item never arrived and the seller ignored previous attempts at communication.

Went via Paypal, seller got in touch, refused to issue a refund but offered to resend the item.

The item is no longer required as an alternative gift was sourced.

Seller wouldn't budge so I opened a case with PayPal.

What is the likelihood that I will get my money back?

If I do will it include the shipping fee?